<p>FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE</p><p>Policy Forum Armenia (PFA) just concluded its preliminary analysis of the official results of Armenia&rsquo;s 2013 Presidential Election based on the data provided by the Central Election Commission. Consistent with eyewitness accounts and a large body of local media reports, our analysis&mdash;which we summarize below&mdash;confirms the following:</p><ul><li>Presence of a significant and systemic effort to artificially inflate the voter turnout (<a href="http://www.pf-armenia.org/sites/default/files/Figure%201.pdf"><strong>Figure 1, Panel 1</strong></a>). The deviations from the expected pattern (i.e., the normal or Gaussian distribution) appear to be larger than those found in our analysis of the 2008 Presidential Election (see Figure 1 in PFA&rsquo;s Report on &ldquo;<a href="http://www.pf-armenia.org/sites/default/files/documents/files/PFA_Election_Report--FINAL.pdf">Armenia&rsquo;s 2008 Presidential Election: Select Issues and Analysis</a>&rdquo;).</li></ul><ul><li>This turnout-enhancing fraud was conducted on behalf of the incumbent, Serge Sargsyan, and against the main challenger, Raffi Hovannisian (<a href="http://www.pf-armenia.org/sites/default/files/Figure%201.pdf"><strong>Figure 1, Panels 1 and 2</strong></a>). The deviations from the expected pattern are massive and exceed the range found during the 2008 election (see Figure 2 in PFA&rsquo;s Report on &ldquo;<a href="http://www.pf-armenia.org/sites/default/files/documents/files/PFA_Election_Report--FINAL.pdf">Armenia&rsquo;s 2008 Presidential Election: Select Issues and Analysis</a>&rdquo;).</li></ul><ul><li>In addition to artificially inflating the voter turnout, votes cast in favor of Raffi Hovannisian and other opposition candidates were fraudulently assigned to Serge Sargsyan: for every 100 ballots cast in polling stations with artificially high voter turnout, Serge Sargsyan received 105 votes (as measured by the slope of the straight line on <a href="http://www.pf-armenia.org/sites/default/files/Figure%202.pdf"><strong>Figure 2, Panel 1</strong></a>).</li></ul><ul><li>Voter turnout was inflated by ballot stuffing, among other means. As shown on <a href="http://www.pf-armenia.org/sites/default/files/Figure%202.pdf"><strong>Figure 2, Panel 3</strong></a>, the number of invalid ballots declined asthe voter turnout increased, a clear sign of ballot stuffing. This result contrasts with the findings of the 2012 Parliamentary Election, where ballot stuffing was not found to be a major factor (See PFA&rsquo;s report on &ldquo;<a href="http://www.pf-armenia.org/document/armenians-2012-parliamentary-election">Armenia&rsquo;s 2012 Parliamentary Election</a>&rdquo;).</li></ul><ul><li>There are indications that invalid ballots were counted in favor of the incumbent (<a href="http://www.pf-armenia.org/sites/default/files/Figure%202.pdf"><strong>Figure 2, Panel 4</strong></a>). The share of votes assigned to Serge Sargsyan is larger in polling stations where the ratio of ballots treated as &ldquo;invalid&rdquo; is lower.</li></ul><ul><li>There is strong evidence of vote-counting fraud in polling stations in rural areas. The digit tests (<a href="http://www.pf-armenia.org/sites/default/files/Figure%203.pdf"><strong>Figure 3</strong></a>) reveal signs of human interference in voter counting (e.g., reassigning of ballots from one candidate to another, etc.) as measured by a significant deviation from the uniform distribution (of votes cast in favor of two front-runners) in polling stations outside of Yerevan and Gyumri.</li></ul><p>All in all, we conclude that in polling stations not affected by falsifications, the main opposition candidate, Raffi Hovannisian, shows a lead of at least 4 percent of the vote. This, however, is likely to be the lower bound of the difference between the two front-runners, because of the extent of violations in favor of Serge Sargsyan, as mentioned earlier.</p><p>This analysis challenges&mdash;in the strongest possible way&mdash;the official version of the events, the statement of the OSCE-ODIHR observer mission, and the reports in Western media outlets about the extent of violations that took place on February 18, 2013.</p><p>Our results strongly indicate that the final outcome of February 2013 election was subject to massive manipulations and interference and did not reflect the free will of the Armenian citizens.</p><p>They also call into question the role of foreign election observers in the Armenian context, specifically their impartiality and ability to detect election fraud that is becoming ever more sophisticated.</p><p>We strongly encourage Raffi Hovannisian and his supporters to forcefully pursue either a system-wide recount of ballots (which would undoubtedly reduce the share of the incumbent&rsquo;s votes and lead to the second round election) or a complete annulment of the election outcome, as the only ways forward for the country and its people.</p><p align="center">For the full test of the Press Release, including Figures, please <strong><a href="http://www.pf-armenia.org/sites/default/files/2013%20Election%20Statement-3.pdf">visit here</a></strong>. &nbsp;</p>